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The transition to more sustainable alternatives in the HVAC industry is becoming increasingly critical. Legal frameworks are being introduced and implemented, and it is time to make changes. We asked two experts, Luca Filippetto and Antonio Canonico, about Europe’s adoption of propane as a refrigerant. To provide an accurate perspective, a fact-based and structured approach was taken, and the findings show that the change to propane varies notably across the continent. Here are the findings together with recommendations for speeding up the transition towards a greener cooling and heating industry.
The approach taken focuses on the European market and units with rated capacity ≥50 kW. Europe is segmented into three regions, Northern, Central and Southern, and they are rated through four indexes: policy pull (PPI), economics (PEI), market demand (MDI) as well as technical and risk readiness (TRR).
The goal is to identify a practical, comparable framework that will help stakeholders and decision makers to select pilot segments, prioritise activities and mitigate risks.
Market Landscape
Across Europe, propane (R290) adoption is shaped by the following system forces, mentioned as indexes above:
- Policy pull (PPI), such as the EU F-Gas phase-down and, more importantly to understand varying adoption rates, taxes, national regulations and subsidies that restrict, penalise high-GWP refrigerants or push the adoption of low-GWP refrigerants.
- Economics (PEI), in this case electricity-to-gas price ratio which is an ultimate driver to project payback for ≥50 kW systems.
- Market demand (MDI), driven by the macroeconomic situation and the presence of innovators among public and corporate entities.
- Technical and risk readiness (TRR), closely related to awareness and training regarding use of R290 refrigerant.
These levers are used to classify countries by the Rogers’ stages: innovators, early adopters and early majority. The result turns out as follows:
|
Region |
Market landscape (≥50 kW, R290) |
Current adoption stage (Rogers) |
|
Northern |
· Strong policy pull as there are GWP based HFC refrigerant taxes, bonuses, a skilled technician base and a generally favourable electricity-to-gas ratio · Training on natural refrigerants is established, e.g. in NO it is performed at all levels of the refrigeration sector, starting from high school |
Early Majority in multiple aspects, pilot projects at higher temperatures |
|
Central |
· Strongest policy/economics engine e.g. DE natural-refrigerant bonus, AT GWP thresholds, NL SDE++, FR Fonds Chaleur |
Early Adopters → Early Majority, some sectors near mainstream. |
|
Southern |
· Incentive schemes mostly refrigerant-neutral e.g., IT Conto Termico, ES PREE |
Innovators → Early Adopters, adoption rate accelerates where there is a push from tenders and Energy performance contracts. |
It is evident that the Green Deal and the F-Gas phase-down set the direction, but progress has been determined locally through regulation and funding formulas. Indeed, beyond policy and funding, adoption hinges on risk perception and experience. Moving from common A2L refrigerant blends to A3 (propane) means embracing a highly flammable refrigerant. That shift succeeds where stakeholders trust the safety framework: design according to European regulations like EN378 or EN60335-2-40, installer and service technician competence, insurer-aligned method statements and commissioning checklists. In short, regulation opens the door, while compliant design, installer competence and consistent commissioning practices are what move markets along the curve.
Key factors
To help turning policy intent into real life projects a criteria-based framework has been built that helps stakeholders involved in ≥50 kW HVAC projects to adopt propane (R290) as refrigerant. The framework condenses the market into four diagnostic indices that capture policy pull (PPI), project economics (PEI), market demand (MDI) and technical and risk readiness (TRR). Each index is scored 1–5.
|
Acronym |
Index |
What index measures |
|
PPI |
Policy Pull Index |
Strength and clarity of pro-natural-refrigerant policies: bonuses for natural refrigerants, HFC taxes/GWP thresholds, eligibility rules and public procurement signals that lower decision friction. |
|
PEI |
Project Economics Index |
Business case quality for ≥50 kW projects: electricity-to-gas price ratio, typical % grant/CapEx aid, grid fees/lead times, carbon/ETS signals and payback at required outlet temps (60–75 °C). |
|
MDI |
Market Demand Index |
Size and velocity of addressable demand: stock of non-residential sites (retail, hospitality, logistics, public), renovation cadence and live tender/call volumes that convert to projects. |
|
TRR |
Technical & Risk Readiness |
Real-world deployability and safety posture: codes/charge-limit handling, permitting procedures, ventilation/leak detection practices, installer training density and site suitability (emitters/space). |
As a result, these four indices look at propane adoption from the four different angles, but they work as a system. Progress on Rogers’ curve is rarely blocked by averages, it is blocked by the weakest index. If one leg is short, for instance permits, insurance, payback or delivery capacity, the value curve collapses and projects stall. To assess and draw the current picture of Northern, Central and Southern Europe, we adopt value curves using the four indices as attributes.
The chart tells a simple story: the Northern’s line sits highest and is most even. That shape reflects years of predictable regulations, price signals that penalise high-GWP refrigerants and/or reward natural alternatives and an installer ecosystem comfortable with propane at ≥50 kW. District-heating and waste-heat integrations are common and permitting as well as insurance are largely procedural. In practice, this region is ready for scale, multi-site rollouts in retail, hospitality and municipal estates, and additionally larger DH projects.
Central Europe plots a notch lower and slightly wavier. Policy muscle is strong, for instance Germany’s natural-refrigerant bonus, Austria’s GWP thresholds, the Netherlands’ SDE++, France’s Fonds Chaleur. However, execution varies. Local permitting habits and conditions as well as legacy high-temperature emitters create dips, even where incentives are generous. Here, the play is to standardise R290 packages, run pre-tender audits and lock in commissioning templates. Once the troughs are lifted, volume follows quickly.
The curve representing the Southern region traces the lowest, most uneven curve. Funding is often refrigerant-neutral and economics hinge on the electricity-to-gas ratio, while technical and risk readiness is patchy. Progress comes from focused R290 “pilot corridors” such as supermarkets, hotels and pools, stacked funding and visible results to build confidence, then expand.
Conclusions
If managing a portfolio or a public estate, treat Northern Europe as reference for R290, ≥50 kW. There are clear rules, credible incentives, trained installers and repeatable plant-room design. For other regions, the recommendation is not to copy everything, it is to close the gaps that keep the value curve below the Northern region’s.
A start is to benchmark the country on the four indices, PPI, PEI, MDI and TRR, and then act where the curve drops:
- If policy/economic lag, stack funding and present the total cost of ownership vs gas with sensitivity to electricity-to–gas prices.
- If knowledge lags, use standard specs, approved method statements, ventilation/detection kits and customised skids.
- If market demand is weak, focus on particular segments, for instance if the new built market is weak, focus on retrofit, both applications can be covered by R290 thanks to its wide working envelope.
And a final recommendation. Focus execution on two “ready” segments per country e.g., retail and hotels at 50–300 kW, run multi-site pilots with clear KPIs such as seasonal performance factor (SPF), commissioning lead time and cost per kW installed. Publish results, repeat the pattern and refresh the four-index chart quarterly. When every index rises together, the market crosses from early adopters to early majority, and scale follows. Just like it already has in the Northern regions of Europe.
